Executive Summary

Oil sands production in Canada has been steadily increasing, and a pipeline connecting Alberta to US Gulf Coast oil refineries has been proposed. The pipeline, Keystone XL (KXL), has faced controversy over the climate effects of oil sands development. President Obama stated in 2013 that he will approve the pipeline “only if this project doesn’t significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.”

To help assess the effect of KXL, Near Zero surveyed a variety of oil sands professionals and researchers. The survey was completed by 26 people: 13 supported KXL, and 13 did not. Most participants (nearly 70%) thought approval of KXL would increase oil sands production in the next 10 and 20 years. The average for all experts was an overall increase of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2015, and 908,000 b/d by 2035 — the latter a 40% increase above current oil sands production.

KXL supporters argued oil sands would primarily displace heavy crudes currently processed at the U.S. Gulf Coast with comparable life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while opponents largely see oil sands as a new source of world oil production that will supply new markets and increase GHG emissions.

If the estimated increase in oil sands production from KXL displaced heavy crude oils currently processed at the US Gulf Coast, the net increase in GHG emissions would be anywhere from >1 to 40 Mt CO2-eq annually by 2035, according to life-cycle GHG estimates from the U.S. State Department report. Yet if the increased oil sands added to rather than displaced world oil supply, its full emissions may represent a net increase, up to 183 Mt CO2-eq by 2035, or nearly 3% of current US annual GHG emissions.

The only scenario in which KXL would not lead to an increase in GHG emissions is if the same amount of oil sands were produced regardless and transported by rail, raising emissions by less than 1.2 Mt CO2-eq annually for 830,000 b/d of production, the full transport capacity of the pipeline. Yet most survey participants did not think the same amount of oil sands would be produced in the absence of KXL approval.

In short, our survey responses suggest KXL would likely raise oil sands production and GHG emissions, particularly if the oil sands added to current global oil production.

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