Keystone XL: The Climate Impact
The proposed Keystone XL pipeline connecting Alberta oil sands to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries would raise future oil sands production, according to a Near Zero survey of 26 oil sands professionals and researchers. Nearly 70% of participants thought approval of the pipeline would raise oil sands production over the next 10 to 20 years, with an average increase of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2015 and over 900,000 b/d by 2035. This would raise annual greenhouse gas emissions between >1 to 40 million metric tons (Mt) CO2-equivalent by 2035 if the increase in oil sands displaced heavy crudes, and up to 183 Mt CO2-eq if the increase added to net world oil supply. The survey was evenly split by those who supported approval of the pipeline, and those who opposed it.
Oil sands production in Canada has been steadily increasing, and a pipeline connecting Alberta to US Gulf Coast oil refineries has been proposed. The pipeline, Keystone XL (KXL), has faced controversy over the climate effects of oil sands development. President Obama stated in 2013 that he will approve the pipeline “only if this project doesn’t significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.”
To help assess the effect of KXL, Near Zero surveyed a variety of oil sands professionals and researchers. The survey was completed by 26 people: 13 supported KXL, and 13 did not. Most participants (nearly 70%) thought approval of KXL would increase oil sands production in the next 10 and 20 years. The average for all experts was an overall increase of 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2015, and 908,000 b/d by 2035 — the latter a 40% increase above current oil sands production.
KXL supporters argued oil sands would primarily displace heavy crudes currently processed at the U.S. Gulf Coast with comparable life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while opponents largely see oil sands as a new source of world oil production that will supply new markets and increase GHG emissions.
Most participants thought Keystone XL would increase future oil sands production, which would likely raise GHG emissions.
If the estimated increase in oil sands production from KXL displaced heavy crude oils currently processed at the US Gulf Coast, the net increase in GHG emissions would be anywhere from >1 to 40 Mt CO2-eq annually by 2035, according to life-cycle GHG estimates from the U.S. State Department report. Yet if the increased oil sands added to rather than displaced world oil supply, its full emissions may represent a net increase, up to 183 Mt CO2-eq by 2035, or nearly 3% of current US annual GHG emissions.
The only scenario in which KXL would not lead to an increase in GHG emissions is if the same amount of oil sands were produced regardless and transported by rail, raising emissions by less than 1.2 Mt CO2-eq annually for 830,000 b/d of production, the full transport capacity of the pipeline. Yet most survey participants did not think the same amount of oil sands would be produced in the absence of KXL approval.
In short, our survey responses suggest KXL would likely raise oil sands production and GHG emissions, particularly if the oil sands added to current global oil production.
a Near Zero white paper
Christine Shearer *†, Mason Inman *, and Steven J. Davis *†
* Near Zero
† University of California, Irvine, Department of Earth System Science
Expert participants
26 experts participated in the discussion and elicitation for this report:
Alice Chapple
Impact Value
Anthony Andrews
Congressional Research Service
Bill McKibben
350.org
Bob Dunbar
Strategy West Inc.
Bruce Baizel
Earthworks
Cary Krosinsky
Carbon Tracker
Chris Powter
University of Alberta
Danny Harvey
University of Toronto
David Hackett
Stillwater Associates
Dinara Millington
Canadian Energy Research Institute
Greg Stringham
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Jalal Abedi
University of Calgary
James Leaton
Carbon Tracker
Kate Colarulli
Sierra Club
Keith Stewart
Greenpeace Canada
Lorne Stockman
Oil Change International
Mark Jaccard
Simon Fraser University
Michael Moore
University of Calgary
Nathan Lemphers
Pembina Institute
Noël Perry
FTR Associates
Paul Precht
Paul Precht Energy Economics (P2)
Pierre-Olivier Pineau
HeC Montreal Business School
Robert Schulz
University of Calgary
Robyn Allan
robynallan.com
Spencer Veale
International Forum on Globalization
Todd Crawford
Conference Board of Canada