Partner project: Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs
Using software tools developed by Near Zero, a team of researchers has completed the largest expert survey yet on any energy technology.
Using Near Zero’s online expert survey platform, researchers were able to gather responses from 163 of the world’s foremost experts on wind energy to forecast future costs for this energy source. The study, led by Ryan Wiser, Group Leader in the Electricity Markets and Policy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, is published in the September 12, 2016, advanced on-line publication of Nature Energy.
On average, the participants expected wind power costs to continue falling for the next several decades, for three major classes of wind turbines, both onshore and offshore, with prices falling by 24-30% by 2030, and 35-41% by 2050.
The expert elicitation was conducted under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme. The study was a collaboration between researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Insight Decisions, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
published in Nature Energy
Ryan Wiser *, Karen Jenni †, Joachim Seel *, Erin Baker §, Maureen Hand ‡, Eric Lantz ‡ and Aaron Smith ‡
* Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
† Insight Decisions
§ University of Massachusetts—Amherst
‡ National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Expert participants
163 experts participated in the elicitation for this study:
Aaron Barr
MAKE
Aaron Zubaty
MAP
Aidan Duffy
Dublin Institute of Technology
Aisma Vitina
EA Energy Analysis
Alastair Dutton
The Crown Estate
Albert Jochems
Laidlaw Capital Management
Alberto Ceña
AEE
Andreas Wagner
Offshore Wind Energy Foundation
Andrew Ho
European Wind Energy Association
Andrew Scott
Energy Technologies Institute
Andy Paliszewski
Consultant
Andy Swift
Texas Tech University
Anurag Gupta
Vestas
Aris Karcanis
FTI
Barry Butler
University of Iowa
Bernard Chabot
Consultant
Birger Madsen
formerly Navigant
Bob Gates
Windstream Properties/Clipper
Bob Prinsen
Ecofys
Brian Healer
RES
Brian Naughton
Sandia National Lab
Brian Smith
National Renewable Energy Lab
Bruce Bailey
AWS Truepower
Bruce Hamilton
Navigant
Carl Sixtensson
DNV GL
Carlos Albero Fuyola
DNV GL
Carlos Casco
Iberdrola
Carsten Ploug Jensen
K2 Management
Case Van Dam
UC Davis
Chris Brown
Vestas
Christian Kjaer
International Renewable Energy Agency
Christopher Mone
National Renewable Energy Lab
Christopher Namovicz
Energy Information Agency
Clint Johnson
DNV GL
Craig Christenson
Turbine Technology Partners
Dan Brake
NextEra
Dan Shreve
MAKE
Daniel Beals
U.S. Department of Energy
Daniel Laird
National Renewable Energy Lab
David Blittersdorf
All Earth Renewables
David de Jager
Ecofys
David Milborrow
Consultant
Denja Lekou
Center for Renewable Energy Sources
Doug Pfeister
TUV-SUD PMSS
Duncan Koerbel
Suzlon
Edgar DeMeo
Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc.
Eirik Byklum
Statoil
Eize de Vries
Consultant
Feng Zhao
FTI
Finn Gunnar Nielsen
Statoil
Flemming Rasmussen
Denmark Technical University
Fort Felker
Francisco Galván González
EDPR
Gadi Hareli
Israeli Wind Energy Association
Gavin Smart
Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult
Greg Matzat
U.S. Department of Energy
Henk-Jan Kooijman
General Electric
Henning Kruse
Siemens
Henrik Stiesdal
ex-Siemens
Heymi Bahar, Cedric Philibert
International Energy Agency
Ignacio Cruz
CIEMAT
Ignacio Marti Perez
Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult
Iver Bakken Sperstad
SINTEF Energy Research
J Kehne
Magellanwind
James Walker
EDF
Jan Schelling
StatKraft
Jan-Fredrik Stadaas
Statoil
Jason Folsom
Siemens
Jasper Voormolen
Energyprofs
Jeffery Ghilardi
EDF
Jérôme Guillet
Green Giraffe Energy Bankers
Jim Ahlgrimm
U.S. Department of Energy
Jim Lanard
Magellanwind
Jim Lyons
NOVUS Energy Partners
Jim O’sullivan
Technip
Jimmy Murphy
University College Cork
Jochen Giebhardt
Fraunhofer IWES
Joe Phillips
Everoze Partners
Johan Sandberg
DNV GL
Johannes Kammer
Vattenfall
John Amos
Siemens
John Brereton
Consultant
John Calaway
Pattern
John Dalsgaard Sørensen
Aalborg University
John Reilly
Bord na Mona
Jorg Kubitza
MHI Vestas
Jorge Magalhaes
Vestas
Jorgen Lemming
formerly Denmark Technical University
Joshua Weinstein
Principal Power Inc
Juan Diego Diaz Vega
Gamesa
Jurgen Weiss
The Brattle Group
Karen Conover
DNV GL
Kenneth Thomsen
Denmark Technical University
Kevin Standish
Envision Energy
Klaus Skytte
Denmark Technical University
Lanny Kirkpatrick
Siemens
Leif Husabo
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
Lena Kitzing
Technical University of Denmark
Lena Neij
Lund University
Liz Salerno
Siemens
Lorry Wagner
LEEDCo
Margaret Montanez
Vestas
Mark Ahlstrom
WindLogics
Mark Bolinger
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Mark Jonkhof
EWT
Mats Vikholm
DONG energy
Matt Daprato
IHS
Matt McCabe
Clear Wind
Maxwell Cohen
IHS
Michael Goggin
American Wind Energy Association
Michael Skelly
Clean Line Energy Partners
Michael Taylor
International Renewable Energy Agency
Michaela O’Donohoe
Adwen
Mike Blanch, Charlie Nordstrom, Alun Roberts, Bruce Valpy
BVG Associates
Mike Derby
U.S. Department of Energy
Mike Finger
EDPR
Mike O’Sullivan
NextEra
Mike Robinson
U.S. Department of Energy
Morten Rasmussen
Siemens
Nancy Rader
California Wind Energy Association
Nick Johnson
U.S. Department of Energy
Patrick Gilman
U.S. Department of Energy
Paul Gipe
Consultant
Paul Veers
National Renewable Energy Lab
Peder Nickelsen
Siemens
Per Krogsgaard
formerly Navigant
Per Vøland
COWI
Peter Frohbose
DNV GL
Peter Hjuler Jensen
Denmark Technical University
Philip Heptonstall
Imperial College
Poul Erik Morthorst
Denmark Technical University
Randall Swisher
AWEA
Rashid Abdul
CG Holdings
Reto Rigassi
Swiss Wind Energy Association
Rich Tusing
U.S. Department of Energy
Richard Glick, Scott Haynes, Wayne Mays, Kevin Walker, Scott Winneguth
Iberdrola
Rick Damiani
National Renewable Energy Lab
Rob Morgan
RES
Robert Brueckmann
Eclareon
Robert de Bruin, Dolf Elsevier van Griethuysen
Van Oord
Robert Poore
DNV GL
Robert Thresher
National Renewable Energy Lab
Roberto Lacal Arantegui
European Commission Joint Research Centre
Ryan Pletka
Black and Veatch
Sam Enfield
MAP
Sander Lensink
ECN
Sandy Butterfield
Boulder Wind Consulting
Scott Baron
Acciona
Senu Sirnivas
National Renewable Energy Lab
Seth Dunn
General Electric
Stephanie McClellan
University of Delaware
Steve Clemmer
Union of Concerned Scientists
Steve Dayney
Senvion
Steve Sawyer
Global Wind Energy Council
Sune Strom
DONG energy
Thomas Buhl
Denmark Technical University
Thomas Choisnet
Ideol
Thomas Donoghue
Acciona
Thomas Fischetti
General Electric
Volker Berkhout
Fraunhofer IWES
Wallace Ebner
AIG
Walt Musial
National Renewable Energy Lab
Weiping Pan
Goldwind