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Partner project: Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Sep 13, 2016

Using software tools developed by Near Zero, a team of researchers has completed the largest expert survey yet on any energy technology.

Using Near Zero’s online expert survey platform, researchers were able to gather responses from 163 of the world’s foremost experts on wind energy to forecast future costs for this energy source. The study, led by Ryan Wiser, Group Leader in the Electricity Markets and Policy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, is published in the September 12, 2016, advanced on-line publication of Nature Energy.

On average, the participants expected wind power costs to continue falling for the next several decades, for three major classes of wind turbines, both onshore and offshore, with prices falling by 24-30% by 2030, and 35-41% by 2050.

The expert elicitation was conducted under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme. The study was a collaboration between researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Insight Decisions, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

published in Nature Energy

Ryan Wiser *, Karen Jenni †, Joachim Seel *, Erin Baker §, Maureen Hand ‡, Eric Lantz ‡ and Aaron Smith ‡


* Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

† Insight Decisions

§ University of Massachusetts—Amherst

‡ National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Expert participants

163 experts participated in the elicitation for this study:

Aaron Barr

MAKE

Aaron Zubaty

MAP

Aidan Duffy

Dublin Institute of Technology

Aisma Vitina

EA Energy Analysis

Alastair Dutton

The Crown Estate

Albert Jochems

Laidlaw Capital Management

Alberto Ceña

AEE

Andreas Wagner

Offshore Wind Energy Foundation

Andrew Ho

European Wind Energy Association

Andrew Scott

Energy Technologies Institute

Andy Paliszewski

Consultant

Andy Swift

Texas Tech University

Anurag Gupta

Vestas

Aris Karcanis

FTI

Barry Butler

University of Iowa

Bernard Chabot

Consultant

Birger Madsen

formerly Navigant

Bob Gates

Windstream Properties/Clipper

Bob Prinsen

Ecofys

Brian Healer

RES

Brian Naughton

Sandia National Lab

Brian Smith

National Renewable Energy Lab

Bruce Bailey

AWS Truepower

Bruce Hamilton

Navigant

Carl Sixtensson

DNV GL

Carlos Albero Fuyola

DNV GL

Carlos Casco

Iberdrola

Carsten Ploug Jensen

K2 Management

Case Van Dam

UC Davis

Chris Brown

Vestas

Christian Kjaer

International Renewable Energy Agency

Christopher Mone

National Renewable Energy Lab

Christopher Namovicz

Energy Information Agency

Clint Johnson

DNV GL

Craig Christenson

Turbine Technology Partners

Dan Brake

NextEra

Dan Shreve

MAKE

Daniel Beals

U.S. Department of Energy

Daniel Laird

National Renewable Energy Lab

David Blittersdorf

All Earth Renewables

David de Jager

Ecofys

David Milborrow

Consultant

Denja Lekou

Center for Renewable Energy Sources

Doug Pfeister

TUV-SUD PMSS

Duncan Koerbel

Suzlon

Edgar DeMeo

Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc.

Eirik Byklum

Statoil

Eize de Vries

Consultant

Feng Zhao

FTI

Finn Gunnar Nielsen

Statoil

Flemming Rasmussen

Denmark Technical University

Fort Felker

Google

Francisco Galván González

EDPR

Gadi Hareli

Israeli Wind Energy Association

Gavin Smart

Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult

Greg Matzat

U.S. Department of Energy

Henk-Jan Kooijman

General Electric

Henning Kruse

Siemens

Henrik Stiesdal

ex-Siemens

Heymi Bahar, Cedric Philibert

International Energy Agency

Ignacio Cruz

CIEMAT

Ignacio Marti Perez

Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult

Iver Bakken Sperstad

SINTEF Energy Research

J Kehne

Magellanwind

James Walker

EDF

Jan Schelling

StatKraft

Jan-Fredrik Stadaas

Statoil

Jason Folsom

Siemens

Jasper Voormolen

Energyprofs

Jeffery Ghilardi

EDF

Jérôme Guillet

Green Giraffe Energy Bankers

Jim Ahlgrimm

U.S. Department of Energy

Jim Lanard

Magellanwind

Jim Lyons

NOVUS Energy Partners

Jim O’sullivan

Technip

Jimmy Murphy

University College Cork

Jochen Giebhardt

Fraunhofer IWES

Joe Phillips

Everoze Partners

Johan Sandberg

DNV GL

Johannes Kammer

Vattenfall

John Amos

Siemens

John Brereton

Consultant

John Calaway

Pattern

John Dalsgaard Sørensen

Aalborg University

John Reilly

Bord na Mona

Jorg Kubitza

MHI Vestas

Jorge Magalhaes

Vestas

Jorgen Lemming

formerly Denmark Technical University

Joshua Weinstein

Principal Power Inc

Juan Diego Diaz Vega

Gamesa

Jurgen Weiss

The Brattle Group

Karen Conover

DNV GL

Kenneth Thomsen

Denmark Technical University

Kevin Standish

Envision Energy

Klaus Skytte

Denmark Technical University

Lanny Kirkpatrick

Siemens

Leif Husabo

Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate

Lena Kitzing

Technical University of Denmark

Lena Neij

Lund University

Liz Salerno

Siemens

Lorry Wagner

LEEDCo

Margaret Montanez

Vestas

Mark Ahlstrom

WindLogics

Mark Bolinger

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Mark Jonkhof

EWT

Mats Vikholm

DONG energy

Matt Daprato

IHS

Matt McCabe

Clear Wind

Maxwell Cohen

IHS

Michael Goggin

American Wind Energy Association

Michael Skelly

Clean Line Energy Partners

Michael Taylor

International Renewable Energy Agency

Michaela O’Donohoe

Adwen

Mike Blanch, Charlie Nordstrom, Alun Roberts, Bruce Valpy

BVG Associates

Mike Derby

U.S. Department of Energy

Mike Finger

EDPR

Mike O’Sullivan

NextEra

Mike Robinson

U.S. Department of Energy

Morten Rasmussen

Siemens

Nancy Rader

California Wind Energy Association

Nick Johnson

U.S. Department of Energy

Patrick Gilman

U.S. Department of Energy

Paul Gipe

Consultant

Paul Veers

National Renewable Energy Lab

Peder Nickelsen

Siemens

Per Krogsgaard

formerly Navigant

Per Vøland

COWI

Peter Frohbose

DNV GL

Peter Hjuler Jensen

Denmark Technical University

Philip Heptonstall

Imperial College

Poul Erik Morthorst

Denmark Technical University

Randall Swisher

AWEA

Rashid Abdul

CG Holdings

Reto Rigassi

Swiss Wind Energy Association

Rich Tusing

U.S. Department of Energy

Richard Glick, Scott Haynes, Wayne Mays, Kevin Walker, Scott Winneguth

Iberdrola

Rick Damiani

National Renewable Energy Lab

Rob Morgan

RES

Robert Brueckmann

Eclareon

Robert de Bruin, Dolf Elsevier van Griethuysen

Van Oord

Robert Poore

DNV GL

Robert Thresher

National Renewable Energy Lab

Roberto Lacal Arantegui

European Commission Joint Research Centre

Ryan Pletka

Black and Veatch

Sam Enfield

MAP

Sander Lensink

ECN

Sandy Butterfield

Boulder Wind Consulting

Scott Baron

Acciona

Senu Sirnivas

National Renewable Energy Lab

Seth Dunn

General Electric

Stephanie McClellan

University of Delaware

Steve Clemmer

Union of Concerned Scientists

Steve Dayney

Senvion

Steve Sawyer

Global Wind Energy Council

Sune Strom

DONG energy

Thomas Buhl

Denmark Technical University

Thomas Choisnet

Ideol

Thomas Donoghue

Acciona

Thomas Fischetti

General Electric

Volker Berkhout

Fraunhofer IWES

Wallace Ebner

AIG

Walt Musial

National Renewable Energy Lab

Weiping Pan

Goldwind

photo credit: Jason Blackeye