Partner project: Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Ryan Wiser, Karen Jenni, Joachim Seel, Erin Baker, Maureen Hand, Eric Lantz and Aaron Smith
Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Using software tools developed by Near Zero, a team of researchers has completed the largest expert survey yet on any energy technology.

Executive Summary

Near Zero conducts research and assessment of energy and climate issues, focusing on integrating quantitative analysis with expert judgment, informing decision-making to accelerate the global transition to a near-zero emission energy system. To support this work, Near Zero has developed open-source software tools to examine where experts agree and disagree and why.

Using Near Zero’s online expert survey platform, researchers were able to gather responses from 163 of the world’s foremost experts on wind energy to forecast future costs for this energy source. The study, led by Ryan Wiser, Group Leader in the Electricity Markets and Policy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, is published in the September 12, 2016, advanced on-line publication of Nature Energy.

On average, the participants expected wind power costs to continue falling for the next several decades, for three major classes of wind turbines, both onshore and offshore, with prices falling by 24-30% by 2030, and 35-41% by 2050.

The expert elicitation was conducted under the auspices of the IEA Wind Technology Collaboration Programme. The study was a collaboration between researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Insight Decisions, University of Massachusetts Amherst, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The elicitation results were published in Nature Energy.


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This report was based on the discussion of 163 experts.
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